Nearly
one in four U.S. borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their home
is worth, indicating that the housing recovery could see another wave
of defaults. 23% of mortgage holders, were underwater in the third
quarter, and 5.3 million have mortgages that are 20% higher than the
value of their home since the recession began. Analysts expect prices
to dip again this winter as foreclosures increase and economic growth
remains modest. The Wall Street Journal reports.
Its not a new
idea and many have always clamored for the banks to take some responsibility for loose lending practices that helped fuel the boom.
But now it seems that a major institution is on board and will
spearhead a push for mortgage debt forgiveness.
Citigroups quarterly reports on mortgage borrowers
As
unemployment rises, more borrowers need principal forgiveness on their
mortgages, not just restructured loans, Citigroup Inc.'s mortgage chief
said. To date, Citigroup helped 130,000 homeowners with $20 billion in
mortgages outstanding avoid potential foreclosure last quarter. But
that number increased 20% from the second quarter. The sub prime
debacle is behind us, the culprit now is unemployment.
Unemployment The Main Cause of Delinquencies
The
main problem of the mortgage industry changes from house-price
depreciation to unemployment, the mortgage market needs more programs
where there is principal reduction for borrowers with negative equity
in their home, as opposed to just a loan restructure, Mr. Das said.
(Via Wall street Journal).
Loan mods alone are not enough to
avoid another tsunami of foreclosures. The housing recovery's momentum
has slowed, and it seems likely that house prices will now resume their
fall. Re-default rates on loans that had already been modified in the
quarter were nearly 39 percent, up 10 percent from the second quarter.
High unemployment coupled with a loss of home equity are too big a
burden for many home owners and the temptation to walk away, may begin
to look like good business sense.
Foreclosures initiated in the
third quarter rose about 10% from the second quarter but fell about 11%
from a year earlier. Completed foreclosures fell less than 1% from the
second quarter and about 48% from a year earlier. Things appear to be
moderating, although I dont think Citigroup is addressing the Alt A
recasts, which are expected to add to the problem, in a big way,
beginning this year and into 2012.
Citigroup Speaks Out
Citi
proposes new programs to forestall impending foreclosures. Recognizing
that existing programs are not enough, the bank wants to reduce the
principal owed and to bring this down to a number homeowners could
cover. In return for forgiveness of some debt, Citi wants to share any
potential upside. Banks step up and take a hit along with the home
owner, home owner gets to stay in the house, Home stays off the market
helping home prices stabilize and bank gets equity share for the
effort. Having the lenders in an equity share position with home owners
is a solid idea.