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Recently Published: The Stock Market Looks At Real Estate Well, we all have heard the bad news, housing sales down again, hugely - 23% in the quarter. NAR reports that sales are at their lowest since the sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales are at the lowest level since May of 1995. What does the stock market have to say? read more... The Rental Sector Is Looking Up This may be the brightest sector and only strong story in a dismal market. There is a real sense of confidence building in the rental sector based on a few strong factors not present in the rest of the housing market.read more... Real Estate Markets: Whats The Catalyst Delinquencies and Foreclosures remain stable but elevated with two loans deteriorating for every one that has improved. So Whats The Catalyst.... Federal HomeBuyers Tax Credit Extension The U.S. House has passed a bill giving home buyers an extra three months to complete their purchases and still qualify for a generous tax credit.The Senate is working to reach an agreement with Republicans to pass the House-passed homebuyer tax credit closing date extension early as today. Jobs Recovery and Rent If history is a guide, what happens with jobs will matter the most to the strength of the housing rebound, said Eric S. Belsky, executive director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies read more.. Strategic Defaults: A Strategic Option New research suggests that when a homes value falls below 75% of the amount owed, the owner starts to think hard about walking away,even if he or she has the money to keep paying. read more... Apartment Vacancy Rates Decline In The First Quarter Vacancy rates for all apartment buildings with 5 units or more declined to 12.1% from 12.5% in the previous quarter, according the NMHC. The national vacancy rate dropped to 7.2% from the prior quarters 8.2%. The apartment sector may well be the first to recover as the overall economy emerges from this great recession. read more... Stock Market Insights For The Housing Markets Existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market read more.. Case Shiller Price Observations The most recent Case Shiller report shows a slowdown and this is likely to continue and magnify, now that the tax credit is passed. That said the price bounce on many markets points to a lot of pent up demand....read more Housing: Where Are We Now With house prices expected to slid and unemployment to rise substantially further, this third foreclosure wave will grow larger. If house prices fall another 10% over the coming year,as Moody’s Economy.com currently forecasts...read more Rent Vs Buy Today Marcus & Millichap just completed a study and found the gap between monthly rents and mortgage payments are at their lowest level in 20 years. Years of declining prices and mortgage rates have created a buyer's market The Case for Recovery As long as mortgage rates dont jump and employment continues to improve, we should see housing play a key role ...read more Case Shiller in Context Prices are now up almost 4 percent from the bottom in May 2009, but off 30 percent from May 2006, largely considered the peak of the housing boom. The 20-city index was off just 0.7 percent from this time last year. The smallest decline in almost three years. NAR and The Commerce Dept Feb Figures Sales of new single-family houses in February 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 308,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development What Does the Stock Market Have to Say About Housing REITs are investment vehicles that trade like stocks or bonds. You can think of them as mutual funds that invest in property or property related paper such as mortgages. Looking at the REITs and the various real estate sectors can help us understand the underlying real estate trends we work with. Home Trends Price Stability The MBAA reports that the trend of mortgage failures is slowing and those in the foreclosure process also slowed in the fourth quarter. More and more, we are hearing people call this a bottom. read more... Case Shiller: Slowly Getting Better The S&P Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 2.5% decrease from a year earlier, a significant easing from the 19%, 15% and 8.7% declines in the rest of 2009. read more... Small Banks In Trouble COP, established by Congress in 2008 to oversee the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), is concerned about our small banks. TCOP expects $200 to $300 billion in losses from commercial real estate loans for small banks. These smaller regional banks are over exposed to commercial loans and may not be able to absorb the deluge of bad paper...read more REITs: Where Are The Good Deals Real-estate investment trusts sold $24 billion in new stock last year, raising to profit from commercial-property distress by picking up high-quality real estate at bargain prices. But they are having trouble finding deals. Home Price Trends: 2010 Since bottoming out in in June, home prices have seen upticks and sales have lifted off of the deep trough lows. Goldman Sachs estimates that Govt stimulus has lifted home prices by about 5%. Moodys now thinks that home prices are now in line with rent ratios and fairly priced, about 3.5% over valued. read more...
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