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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Refinance Applications Continue to Increase
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of
09/01/2010
Market Composite Index:
(loan application volume)
increased 2.7 percent on a
seasonally
adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the
Index increased 2.3 percent compared with the previous
week.
Refinance Index:
increased 2.8 percent from
the previous week and is at its highest level since May 1, 2009.
Purchase Index:
increased 1.8 percent from
one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent
compared
with the previous week and was 37.0 percent lower than the same
week one year ago.
Refinance
Share of Mortgage
Activity:
increased to 82.9 percent of
total applications from 82.4 percent the previous week
and is the highest refinance share observed since January 2009.
Arm Share:
increased
to 6.1 percent from 5.8 percent of total applications from the
previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Existing
home sales in June declined 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 5.37 million units from 5.66 million in May, and are 9.8
percent higher than in June of last year. Single family home sales fell
5.6 percent to 4.70 million units in June from 4.98 million units in
May, and are 8.5 percent above the pace in June 2009. For both total
existing home sales and single family home sales, the monthly decrease
was the largest since January this year.
We
predict that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.5 trillion in
2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase activity
continues to be weak, while refinance activity is being propped up by
mortgage rates that are close to historical lows, although there is much
less refinancing going on now than in previous periods of
comparably low mortgage rates. Purchase originations will fall to $576
billion from $750 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will
decrease to about $900 billion in 2010 from $1.2 trillion in 2009.
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